China is building reactors faster, cheaper, and at greater scale than any other country. But can nuclear really replace coal, or is this about something else entirely?
Hi interesting article. However I suggest nuclear has missed the boat.
China is stopping subsidies on wind and solar but construction is booming. In the first three months of this year over 60 GW of new wind and solar was built in China. This compares with only 9 GW of thermal in the same time period. Even allowing for capacity factors this is a massive increase in generation from wind and solar compared to thermal.
The simple fact is wind and solar backed up by batteries and hydro are far cheaper than nuclear. Nuclear can only survive in China (or anywhere else) with large government subsidies. Solar, wind and batteries have all been subsidised by the Chinese government (and other governments) but they have now reached the point they don't need subsidies any more.
Nuclear so far has failed to make that transition.
If you love paying tax support nuclear power. If you just want cheap reliable power then support solar wind and batteries.
Hi D.O. Wind and solar are massively increasing in China and in 2023 contributed 15.54% of their total electricity production. But they are still variable sources, don't contribute to grid stability, and their expansion means that the State Grid Corporation of China is having to spend $89 billion in 2025 on grid infrastructure upgrades. Like the expansion of variable renewables in Western countries, the knock-on impacts are costly and significant. Although newer VRE generation capacity isn't being as heavily subsidised in China, and even if China stops all of the central, provincial and city subsidies, external demand will still provide reasons for Chinese industry to manufacture the components, VRE doesn't stop being reliant on the weather. The combination of cheap VRE component manufacturing and the huge Chinese battery manufacturing capacity will likely be the subject of a future deep dive.
According to a friend by of mine who was the project director, the photo at the top of the article is of Qinshan III Candu - which isn’t mentioned in the article. That unit was built on time & on budget.
Interesting Article, well written!
Hi interesting article. However I suggest nuclear has missed the boat.
China is stopping subsidies on wind and solar but construction is booming. In the first three months of this year over 60 GW of new wind and solar was built in China. This compares with only 9 GW of thermal in the same time period. Even allowing for capacity factors this is a massive increase in generation from wind and solar compared to thermal.
The simple fact is wind and solar backed up by batteries and hydro are far cheaper than nuclear. Nuclear can only survive in China (or anywhere else) with large government subsidies. Solar, wind and batteries have all been subsidised by the Chinese government (and other governments) but they have now reached the point they don't need subsidies any more.
Nuclear so far has failed to make that transition.
If you love paying tax support nuclear power. If you just want cheap reliable power then support solar wind and batteries.
Hi D.O. Wind and solar are massively increasing in China and in 2023 contributed 15.54% of their total electricity production. But they are still variable sources, don't contribute to grid stability, and their expansion means that the State Grid Corporation of China is having to spend $89 billion in 2025 on grid infrastructure upgrades. Like the expansion of variable renewables in Western countries, the knock-on impacts are costly and significant. Although newer VRE generation capacity isn't being as heavily subsidised in China, and even if China stops all of the central, provincial and city subsidies, external demand will still provide reasons for Chinese industry to manufacture the components, VRE doesn't stop being reliant on the weather. The combination of cheap VRE component manufacturing and the huge Chinese battery manufacturing capacity will likely be the subject of a future deep dive.
PS - great article & very interesting.
According to a friend by of mine who was the project director, the photo at the top of the article is of Qinshan III Candu - which isn’t mentioned in the article. That unit was built on time & on budget.